This is a bit off-topic, but I'm surprised at how much cobalt the World Bank estimates is needed! Assuming a constant 4.9% growth rate to get from 2018 to 2050 projected demand, 10.5 million tons would be needed between 2018 and 2050. The USGS estimates that world cobalt reserves are currently 7.1 million tons. This would be possible with an increase in reserves, but I think it's more likely that manufacturers will switch to lithium chemistries that use less cobalt.
From a different perspective industry recons at 25,000 tons needed to produce 1 million cars. Current production 100,000 tons or 4 million cars a year. Battery life 5 years. Global reserves (statista 2021) 20 Million tons. Volkswagen alone will produce 26 million EV in 2029 needing 650,000 tons annually and rising. Car companies will compete for lithium. As will stationary storage. Sending the price up. EV demand will outcompete stationary storage. So stationary storage will not be able to scale significantly using Li-Ion or reach TW scale.
Seems like something that could be optimized..? What makes it take that long, and couldn't it be done faster if the price of the commodity is high and building the mines is seen as a higher priority?
This is a bit off-topic, but I'm surprised at how much cobalt the World Bank estimates is needed! Assuming a constant 4.9% growth rate to get from 2018 to 2050 projected demand, 10.5 million tons would be needed between 2018 and 2050. The USGS estimates that world cobalt reserves are currently 7.1 million tons. This would be possible with an increase in reserves, but I think it's more likely that manufacturers will switch to lithium chemistries that use less cobalt.
From a different perspective industry recons at 25,000 tons needed to produce 1 million cars. Current production 100,000 tons or 4 million cars a year. Battery life 5 years. Global reserves (statista 2021) 20 Million tons. Volkswagen alone will produce 26 million EV in 2029 needing 650,000 tons annually and rising. Car companies will compete for lithium. As will stationary storage. Sending the price up. EV demand will outcompete stationary storage. So stationary storage will not be able to scale significantly using Li-Ion or reach TW scale.
"5-7 years to build a lithium mine"
Seems like something that could be optimized..? What makes it take that long, and couldn't it be done faster if the price of the commodity is high and building the mines is seen as a higher priority?