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Jonathan Ray's avatar

Asking for the binary "do you currently have a gas stove?" elides a lot of important information. People move around. A previous residence with a poorly ventilated gas stove can cause lasting damage that persists after you move somewhere else. As it did in my case. The A/(A+B) * B/(B+D)

calculation could just as easily be an underestimate as an overestimate. I avoid gas stoves in new residences BECAUSE of my asthma, so I personally contribute to making that calculation more underestimate-y

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David Speyer's avatar

You write that the PAF is A/(A+B) * B/(B+D) where

A.) gas stove, no asthma

B.) gas stove, asthma

C.) no gas stove, no asthma

D.) no gas stove, asthma

This formula doesn't make sense to me. Suppose that gas stoves and asthma were completely unrelated: gas stoves happen at random with probability p and asthma happens at random with probability q, independently. Then this formula gives

p(1-q)/p * pq/q = (1-q)*p

when it should give 0.

What am I missing?

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